Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
