Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
